Wheat Bull/BearMixed evidence

Wheat Bull/Bear decision surface

Current stance

Mild Bull

Board score +11. 60% confidence.

Published desk thesis-of-record · US +32 / 45%

Thesis confidence / pressure

Bear pressure/Bull pressure

BearBalancedBull

Open first60% confidenceSource coverage: Canada + US

Medium conviction: the read has usable source agreement, but it still needs confirmation.

Demand and flow support is outweighing supply pressure in the current Wheat read.

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. Source context and local movement sit below the visual read.

Mechanical evidence pressure

Proof rows below

Supply

Supply pressure

WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Price / FX

Price headwind

Fresh Wheat price basket shows futures pressure: Spring Wheat -1.9%, HRW Wheat -2.0%, SRW Wheat -1.8%. Spring Wheat uses a Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat that leg as provisional.

Funds

Positioning neutral

CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

Crop progress · Prairie + US condition · MB · SK · AB this week · Canada Prairie · Prairie map Satellite moisture · Crop-stress belts · Stress thumbnail Price proof · Spring · HRW · SRW · Agreement motion

Crop progress

Prairie + US condition

MB · SK · AB this week

Partial Prairie package

Package week ending 2026-08-05

Prairie map

Canada

Canada Prairie

No scored weather lean

Week ending 2026-08-05

No scored Canada crop-progress weather domain yet

No scored condition metric yet for this side.

United States

Bearish supply cushion

Week ending 2026-08-02

USDA progress visible; weather domain not attached

Winter harvestedscores86%

Spring harvestedscores5%

Spring good/excellentscores55%

Spring headedscores98%

Prairie package

Manitobain

Report in for this package

Saskatchewanin

Report in for this package

Albertawaiting

Waiting on this province's report

Canada Prairie package is still filling in; US weather lean is bearish (supply cushion).

Satellite moisture

Crop-stress belts

Watch-only

Week ending 2026-07-12

Stress thumbnail

Russia spring-wheat belt

near-normal · 0.07

Russia winter-wheat belt

healthy (bearish supply) · 0.31

US winter-wheat belt

near-normal · -0.01

This week, the US winter-wheat belt looks near normal; Russia's winter-wheat belt looks healthy — which tends to weigh on prices; Russia's spring-wheat belt looks near normal.

Open full Wheat Data map →

Price proof

Spring · HRW · SRW

Contracts agree ↓

Agreement motion

Spr

HRW

SRW

Contracts agree ↓

Spring Wheat$7.08-1.91%

HRW$7.00-1.96%

SRW$6.30-1.83%

The three Wheat classes are softer together — price confirmation leans cautious.

Swipe the cards, or tap a chip above. Desktop shows all three side by side.

Why this week

Bull and bear drivers

Icon language for the main pull and push. Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

Story first

Bull case

Managed money support

7,850 net contracts: Managed money is net long in the primary positioning row for Wheat.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear case

Futures pressure

-2.0%: The latest packet price sample is USD 7/$/bu on 2026-08-06.

Grain price feed

Deeper proof

How we got here

Expand

Evidence cross-check · Relationship spiderweb · Source (what we watch) · Price basket proof · Packet trend context · Historical price context · Historical export context · USDA relationship read · Decision role · Wheat Crop Progress · Watch leads (what could change the thesis) · Read the evidence · What feeds this read

Source (what we watch)

Pressure (bull bear)

Read (what it means)

Crop Condition / WeatherHigh impactThe winter crop is 86% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 5% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 55% good or excellent, 7 points above last year.Condition, harvest pace, heading, and short-term weather risk.NeutralMixed supply signal

What this means

Crop condition and weather are early supply clues. They matter most when poor condition, harvest delays, or moisture stress are confirmed by later balance-sheet, export, or price data.

Score effect

0 points of near neutral pressure.

Sources

Condition, harvest pace, heading, and short-term weather risk.

SupplyWASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.USDA WASDE + USDA Quarterly Grain StocksSlightly bearishSupply pressure

What this means

Supply rows anchor the bear side when stocks, carryout, or production leave enough grain available. Tightening stocks or a production shock would move this lane toward bull support.

Score effect

-11 points of bearish pressure.

Sources

USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Demand / ExportsNo plain-English evidence line is attached to this lane yet.USDA Export SalesNeutralDemand neutral

What this means

Demand rows test whether buyers are absorbing Wheat fast enough. Strong export sales or shipment pace can offset supply pressure, but demand does not overrule fresh supply risk by itself.

Score effect

0 points of near neutral pressure.

Sources

USDA Export Sales

Movement / LogisticsNo active packet evidence in this lane.Producer deliveries, terminal receipts, rail flow, and export access.NeutralNeutral

What this means

Movement rows show whether grain is actually flowing through country elevators, rail, terminals, and ports. Slow flow can weaken demand proof even when sales look supportive.

Score effect

0 points of near neutral pressure.

Sources

Producer deliveries, terminal receipts, rail flow, and export access.

Price / FXFresh Wheat price basket shows futures pressure: Spring Wheat -1.9%, HRW Wheat -2.0%, SRW Wheat -1.8%. Spring Wheat uses a Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat that leg as provisional.Grain price feedSlightly bearishPrice headwind

What this means

Price and currency are confirmation. If futures and basis agree with the official data, confidence rises; if price fights the data, the board should stay cautious.

Score effect

-5 points of bearish pressure.

Sources

Grain price feed

PositioningCFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.CFTC Commitments of TradersNeutralPositioning neutral

What this means

Positioning is timing and crowding context. It can warn about short-covering or liquidation risk, but fundamentals still decide the main direction.

Score effect

+1 points of near neutral pressure.

Sources

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Watch LeadsWatch-only leads can change what the desk inspects next, but they do not move the read by themselves.Accepted leads that tell the desk what to inspect next.NeutralKey to watch

What this means

Watch leads tell the desk what to inspect next. They do not move the Wheat read unless tied back to an admitted official or market source.

Score effect

0 points of near neutral pressure.

Sources

Accepted leads that tell the desk what to inspect next.

Bearish pressureNeutralBullish pressure

Latest updateUSDAReleased Aug 3, 2026

Wheat Crop Progress - Week ending Aug 2, 2026

The winter crop is 86% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 5% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 55% good or excellent, 7 points above last year.

Supply / weather pressure

Winter harvested

86%

81% last week; 86% last year

Spring harvested

2% last week; 5% last year

Spring good/excellent

55%

53% last week; 48% last year

Spring headed

98%

92% last week; 95% last year

Source: USDA Crop Progress

View full report

Watch leads (what could change the thesis)

Wheat only

Next crop progress

Condition, harvest pace, and heading.

CGC export pace

Managed money support

Basis / FX

Cash support versus currency and futures pressure.

Fund positioning

Crowded short or short-covering risk.

Evidence cross-check

Why the desk and scorecard can differ

The published desk thesis owns the farmer-facing headline. The deterministic scorecard remains a mechanical audit of admitted source rows, so disagreement is shown instead of silently replacing the desk call.

Published +11 / 60%Mechanical -6 / 58%

Deciding datumUS / SupplyOlder official row

-11 weighted points from USDA WASDE + USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Stocks/use: 45.0%. Period: 2026-08-06T22:05:53.230886+00:00.

Counterweight check: US Positioning is the main counterweight at +1. The deciding datum is 10 weighted points stronger.

Source-specific read: The judge keeps source role separate from effect size: official rows set the evidence stack, price confirms it, and watch leads stay outside the score.

Best bull offset

US Positioning +1

CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

Best bear offset

US Supply -11

WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Mechanical cross-check: bearish pressure is still heavier than support. The published desk call remains Mild Bull because the weekly desk also reconciles bounded macro/event evidence and specialist disagreement that is not allowed to write directly into the deterministic source scorecard.

Wheat X Pulse · watch-only

What X is saying about Wheat

Field and market chatter ranked for the desk. This never moves the official Bull/Bear score.

Leaning bearish on XScore -0.359 · trust 49%

Tension vs official board · divergent

Tension: X Pulse is lean bearish while the official board is bullish. Desk should inspect whether X is early (weather/basis chatter) or noise — X cannot overturn the scorecard alone.

Official board stance used for comparison: bullish · Desk impact: Desk should treat the X lean as market psychology and early warning. Use tensionAlignment: aligned raises conviction, divergent lowers conviction / raises inspection priority, quiet means no X pressure today.

Provenance · where this came from

Tables: x_scout_runs, x_market_signals
Scout: grok_cli / daily_pulse
Run date: 2026-06-01 · started May 31, 11:19 p.m. MDT
Recency: Scout run is 67 days old — treat as stale watch context
Trust: Composite confidence 49% · 2/2 prairie-weighted · price snapshot fresh at scout time
Accepted / rejected: 2 / 0 · price snapshot fresh
Artifact: C:\Users\kyle\Agriculture\bushel-board-app\data\X Scout Runs\2026-06-01\daily_pulse-raw.json

How we rank posts

Wheat X Pulse ranks accepted Wheat/Durum posts only. Each post gets a contribution from who posted it, where it points, direction × confidence, and how fresh it is. The board scorecard never uses this number.

Source tier 25%

Location 30%

Direction×conf 25%

Recency 10%

Corroboration 10%

Score authority none

X Pulse is watch-only. Authority order: official sources → prices → X watch evidence → daily bounded overlays → Friday desk thesis of record. Open /thesis?audit=1 for full admission and trust rule lists.

Distance shows mechanical scorecard impact

Closer nodes carry more deterministic score weight. Bear pressure sits left, bull support sits right, and thicker edges mean bigger weighted points. The published desk thesis remains the headline above.

Edge width = weighted points

Inner: high impactMiddle: contextOuter: watch

Inner ring

high impact, closest to the read

#1US Supply -11

Middle ring

meaningful context

No active lanes in this ring.

Outer ring

watch or light pressure

#2CA Price -2#3US Price -2#4US Positioning +1

USDA Wheat sweep

Official U.S. rows behind the Wheat read

These rows explain the U.S. side of the scorecard. Crop stress can support price, but WASDE, stocks, exports, and price confirmation decide whether it changes the full Wheat read.

Official source rows only

USDA relationship read

Read the row chain left to right before changing the Wheat stance.

Condition to price confirmation

Condition signal

Crop Progress shows whether weather is creating yield stress before the balance sheet catches up.

Balance anchor

WASDE turns acres, yield, exports, and ending stocks into the baseline supply cushion.

Demand confirmation

Export Sales tests whether buyers are pulling enough Wheat to hit the WASDE export target.

Inventory check

Quarterly Stocks checks the actual grain cushion and can confirm or challenge WASDE.

Price confirmation

The Spring Wheat / HRW / SRW basket shows whether futures are trading the official story.

Cadence-limitedStrong source proof

Crop Progress

USDA Crop Progress

Condition, harvest, and heading pressure

Decision role

Condition signal

First supply clue: crop stress can raise bull risk, but it needs WASDE, stocks, exports, or price to confirm that the system is actually tightening.

Watch only right now

No score move in this packet

The winter crop is 86% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 5% harvested, near last year's pace. The spring crop is 55% good or excellent, 7 points above last year.

Cadence: Weekly in seasonLatest row: Aug 2, 2026

Deciding rowStrong source proof

WASDE balance

USDA WASDE

Production, exports, ending stocks, and stocks/use

Decision role

Balance anchor

Balance-sheet anchor: WASDE decides whether crop stress is large enough to change stocks/use, export targets, and ending stocks.

-11 weighted points

Stocks/use: 45.0%

WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Cadence: MonthlyLatest row: Jul 1, 2026

Cadence-limitedStrong source proof

Export Sales

USDA Export Sales

Weekly demand execution versus USDA target

Decision role

Demand confirmation

Demand test: this row stays watch context until the next official sales release proves whether buyers are keeping pace with the WASDE export target.

0 weighted points

No score move in this packet

Cadence-limited demand proof. Keep watching whether sales confirm or challenge the WASDE export target.

Cadence: Weekly with publication lagLatest row: Jul 30, 2026

Bear pressureStale-risk source

Quarterly Stocks

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Inventory cushion and surprise versus balance-sheet context

Decision role

Inventory check

Inventory test: quarterly stocks check the actual cushion. A surprise can challenge WASDE, but between releases this stays cadence-bound context.

-11 weighted points

Quarterly stocks: 35,386 kt

WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Cadence: QuarterlyLatest row: Mar 1, 2026

Price basket proof

Spring Wheat / HRW / SRW confirmation

All reported contracts bearish

Spring Wheat

MGEX

-1.9%

USD 7.08/$/bu; Aug 6, 2026

HRW Wheat

KCBT

-2.0%

USD 7/$/bu; Aug 6, 2026

SRW Wheat

CBOT

-1.8%

USD 6.31/$/bu; Aug 6, 2026

Packet trend context

Short settlement window from the current packet; use it to judge whether the latest price move confirms the official source stack.

Packet window, not full chart

Spring Wheat

Barchart latest-only leg

+2.6%

Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026. Latest close 7.08 USD/bu; latest daily change -1.9%.

HRW Wheat

4 packet closes

-2.5%

Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026. Latest close 6.995 USD/bu; latest daily change -2.0%.

SRW Wheat

4 packet closes

-3.1%

Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026. Latest close 6.305 USD/bu; latest daily change -1.8%.

Historical price context

Public-safe Wheat futures history from the price feed. This shows whether the recent market tape confirms the official data stack.

60-day price history

Spring Wheat

MGEX

10 closes / barchart

+7.6%

Jul 14, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026

Latest close 7.08 USD/bu; range 6.58 USD/bu-7.2 USD/bu.

HRW Wheat

KCBT

42 closes / yahoo-finance

+11.1%

Jun 8, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026

Latest close 6.995 USD/bu; range 6 USD/bu-7.635 USD/bu.

SRW Wheat

CBOT

42 closes / yahoo-finance

+8.1%

Jun 8, 2026 to Aug 6, 2026

Latest close 6.305 USD/bu; range 5.695 USD/bu-7.058 USD/bu.

This is market confirmation only. A split basket, short packet window, or weak history lowers confidence; it does not overrule official supply, demand, and movement rows by itself.

Historical export context

Demand pull beside the price tape

16-week demand history

Exports show whether grain is actually disappearing. This is demand confirmation only; it does not overrule official supply, stocks, or price confirmation by itself.

Canada CGC export pull

CGC weekly grain stats; season not reported.

freshness unknown

n/a

No history rows

Latest row No latest row; source through No latest row.

not reported exports against not reported producer deliveries.

U.S. Export Sales

USDA Export Sales; season not reported.

freshness unknown

not reported

No history rows

Latest row No latest row; source through No latest row.

not reported weekly exports; not reported total commitments. Projection pace not admitted for this row.

Read the evidence

The top board is visual-first. These notes explain the same scoring for anyone who wants the longer read.

One Wheat read

Why the board is leaning this way

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA -2 Lean bear (Futures pressure); US +32 Mild Bull (Managed money net long).

Bull case

Managed money support: 7,850 net contracts: Managed money is net long in the primary positioning row for Wheat.

Bear case

Futures pressure: -2.0%: The latest packet price sample is USD 7/$/bu on 2026-08-06.

Source rows behind the read

Active official inputs: CFTC Commitments of Traders, Grain price feed, USDA Export Sales, USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks. Source geography is evidence context; this screen keeps one Wheat read.

What feeds this read

7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks· official inputCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding· official inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure· official inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Market intelligence from public sources only. Not an instruction to price, hedge, or market grain. Data follows official publication schedules and may lag.

Your area

Enter your postal code to see your province's grain movement and any prices posted near you. Saved on this device only - no account needed.

Official source rows have watch items to inspect

Source health: 11 strong freshness rows; 3 watch source groups across 3 packet rows. 3 source groups need attention across 3 packet rows. Confidence is source-completeness, not a marketing instruction.

Cached board: freshPrairie crop progress: partial mb sk; loaded MB+SK (Crop Report - 2026-05-07, Manitoba Crop Report - 2026-08-05)Last source run Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDT

Current snapshot

Generated Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDTCached boardCache freshBoard update modeweekly packet0/2 today

Source watermark Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDT; latest live run Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDT. Direct packet data; no archive fallback.

Board update mode: No visible Bull/Bear row has a daily overlay; weekly thesis packet controls the displayed scores until a review-gated daily row matches the current period. Daily overlays are review-gated status rows, not proof that production write automation is enabled.

Wheat pilot

Wheat Pressure Map

Active Wheat evidence, relationship links, and guardrails across every known source lane before the board prints the final Bull/Bear read.

Mixed evidence / +11

Source lanes

14 have current proof in this view

Causal factors

10 active or proof-backed

Graph links

27 can affect pressure

Packet contributions

6 score-backed; 5 parked gaps

Source data lanes

4 active-driver sources

LaggedScores

CGC weekly grain stats

Packet freshness broken; latest 2026-07-26.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

MissingProof only

CGC import proof

No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

Canada supply-disposition table

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-07-29.

Factors: Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

Prairie crop-progress reports

Latest collector success; finished 2026-08-06T17:19:50.257487+00:00.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing, Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

USDA Crop Progress

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-08-02.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

USDA Export Sales

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-07-30.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution 0

US demand: 0 (0 x 24%)

Sources: USDA Export Sales; confidence high; freshness strong.

Active driverScores

USDA WASDE mapped balance

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Active driverScores

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

AvailableScores

Canada Grain Monitor

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-08-04.

Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

LaggedScores

CGC Producer Cars

Packet freshness usable but stale-risk; latest 2026-07-18.

Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Active driverScores

CFTC Commitments of Traders

2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.

Factors: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

Current packet contribution +1.48

CA positioning: +0.5 (+10 x 5%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +7,850 contractsWeekly net change: +5,325 contracts

Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

US positioning: +0.98 (+10 x 10%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +7,850 contractsWeekly net change: +5,325 contracts

Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

Active driverBounded context

Daily futures price feed

2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution -4.94

CA price: -2.5 (-17 x 15%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence medium; freshness strong.

Spring Wheat futures change: -1.9%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.08/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: -2.0%

Bear: Fresh Wheat price basket shows futures pressure: class-specific Wheat -1.9%, HRW Wheat -2.0%, SRW Wheat -1.8%. class-specific Wheat uses a Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat that leg as provisional.

US price: -2.45 (-17 x 14%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence medium; freshness strong.

Spring Wheat futures change: -1.9%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.08/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: -2.0%

MissingBounded context

USD/CAD FX rates

No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

MissingBounded context

Intraday grain-price quotes

No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableWatch-only

Raw WASDE/PSD world balance

Latest collector success; finished 2026-07-29T06:13:27.64014+00:00.

Factors: Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Watch-onlyWatch-only

X Pulse scout proof

Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.

Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Watch-onlyWatch-only

X Pulse accepted signals

Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.

Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Wheat factor nodes

3 bounded price lanes

Active driverOfficial inputsupply

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

4/4 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.

Do not use generic Wheat as a class-specific Wheat proxy.

AvailableOfficial inputsupply

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Slower supply-disposition context should anchor the read, not override fresher weekly movement.

AvailableOfficial inputweather

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Spring Cereals rows are official group-level timing proxies for the public Wheat lane only; they do not unlock class-specific Wheat proxy scoring.

AvailableOfficial inputweather

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Cropland and All Crops moisture rows are broad provincial proxy evidence, not crop-specific or class-specific Wheat condition, quality, or yield facts; mapper confidence is capped as proxy evidence.

AvailableOfficial inputdemand

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

3/3 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution 0

US demand: 0 (0 x 24%)

Sources: USDA Export Sales; confidence high; freshness strong.

Tender-level Black Sea/EU/Australia collection is parked.

AvailableOfficial inputlogistics

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Canada logistics are admitted with visible lag; US logistics remains parked for Wheat V1.

Watch-onlyWatch-onlysupply

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Raw WASDE/PSD can frame world wheat balance; origin-specific tender, freight, and policy feeds are not admitted.

Watch-onlyWatch-onlydemand

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

X Pulse is watch-only: it cannot author, rank, or move Wheat thesis facts without official-source or desk corroboration.

Active driverPrice contextprice

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

1/3 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.

Current packet contribution -4.94

CA price: -2.5 (-17 x 15%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence medium; freshness strong.

Spring Wheat futures change: -1.9%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.08/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: -2.0%

US price: -2.45 (-17 x 14%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence medium; freshness strong.

Spring Wheat futures change: -1.9%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.08/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: -2.0%

Quality-grade source feed is parked.

Active driverOfficial inputpositioning

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

1/1 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.

Current packet contribution +1.48

CA positioning: +0.5 (+10 x 5%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +7,850 contractsWeekly net change: +5,325 contracts

Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

US positioning: +0.98 (+10 x 10%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +7,850 contractsWeekly net change: +5,325 contracts

Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 7,850 contracts, with weekly net change +5,325 contracts.

Positioning confirms or challenges source facts; it does not replace supply and demand evidence.

Wheat score nodes

CAWeekly packet

-2

Lean bear

75%

USPublished desk thesis Jul 14, 7:09 p.m. MDT

+32

Mild Bull

45%

Final read60% avg confidence

+11

CA -2 Lean bear (Futures pressure); US +32 Mild Bull (Managed money net long).

Active evidence drivers

CA bullOfficial inputpositioning

Managed money support

7,850 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

CA bearPrice contextprice

Futures pressure

-2.0% / Grain price feed

Linked factor: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

US bullOfficial inputpositioning

Managed money net long

7,850 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

US bearOfficial inputsupply

WASDE balance loosening

45.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

US bearOfficial inputsupply

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

US bearPrice contextprice

Futures pressure

-2.0% / Grain price feed

Linked factor: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

All graph links

6 watch-only links

CGC weekly grain stats

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

CGC import proof

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

proof only

Canada supply-disposition table

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

score input

USDA Crop Progress

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

USDA Export Sales

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

USDA WASDE mapped balance

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

USDA WASDE mapped balance

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

Canada Grain Monitor

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

score input

CGC Producer Cars

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

score input

CFTC Commitments of Traders

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

score input

Daily futures price feed

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

USD/CAD FX rates

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

Intraday grain-price quotes

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

Raw WASDE/PSD world balance

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

watch only

X Pulse scout proof

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

watch only

X Pulse accepted signals

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

watch only

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

watch only

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

watch only

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

bounded context

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canada Wheat

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

country score

US Wheat

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

country score

Corn

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

substitute

Black Sea/EU/Australia

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

competitor origin

Rule firing now

Local bull signal capped by global origins

When: Canada/US wheat data is supportive but Black Sea, EU, or Australia origin context is cheap or abundant.

Market response: The thesis can stay locally constructive while broad futures conviction is capped by competing export origins.

Confidence: Keep competitor-origin pressure watch-only unless an admitted global-origin source proves the pressure.

Source boundary

Positioning confirms or challenges source facts; it does not replace supply and demand evidence.

Parked Wheat gaps

class-specific Wheat mapping, global origin collector, protein/falling-number feed, local basis.

Relationship links

Price contextsubstitute

Corn

Feed wheat competes with corn when spreads narrow.

Watch-onlycompetitor origin

Black Sea/EU/Australia

Global origins can cap wheat even when local data is supportive.

Wheat Packet Details

Canada and US Wheat packet cards with source freshness, bull/bear cases, and provenance.

2 packets

Canada75% confidenceScore source: Deterministic scorecard

Wheat

Crop year 2026-2027 / week latest

-2

Lean bear

Bull Case

Managed money support

medium

Managed money is net long in the primary positioning row for Wheat.

7,850 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

Futures pressure

medium

The latest packet price sample is USD 7/$/bu on 2026-08-06.

-2.0% / Grain price feed

What feeds this read

7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDT

CGC weekly grain stats: brokenPosted cash prices: emptyWeather context: emptyCGC Producer Cars: usable but stale-riskFarm delivery plan: usable but stale-riskFarm crop plan: usable but stale-risk+5 more

CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations) is broken: Inspect source_runs.last_error and rerun collector.

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

+3 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 51	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 51	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 51	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2026-2027 / AAFC_2026-07-20	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 52 / 2026-07-28	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-08-06 / Corn / ZC	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-07-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

US45% confidenceScore source: Published desk thesis Jul 14

Wheat

Market year 2025

+32

Mild Bull

Bull Case

Managed money net long

medium

Primary CFTC positioning is net long in the latest packet row.

7,850 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

WASDE balance loosening

medium

Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.

45.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

low

USDA quarterly stocks show 35,386 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and +5.2% versus year ago.

+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Futures pressure

medium

The latest packet price sample is USD 7/$/bu.

-2.0% / Grain price feed

What feeds this read

7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Aug 6, 4:05 p.m. MDT

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: usable but stale-riskCFTC Commitments of Traders: strongGrain price feed: strongUSDA WASDE: strongUSDA acreage estimates: strongUSDA Crop Progress: strong+1 more

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 52 / 2026-07-28	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-08-06 / Corn / ZC	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-07-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-08-02	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-07-30	weekly Thu AM	demand

Open detail page

WheatWheat Bull/Bear decision surface

Prairie + US condition

Crop-stress belts

Spring · HRW · SRW

Bull and bear drivers

How we got here

Wheat Crop Progress - Week ending Aug 2, 2026

Watch leads (what could change the thesis)

Why the desk and scorecard can differ

What X is saying about Wheat

Distance shows mechanical scorecard impact

Official U.S. rows behind the Wheat read

Spring Wheat / HRW / SRW confirmation

Demand pull beside the price tape

Read the evidence

Wheat Pressure Map

Wheat Packet Details

Bull Case

Bear Case

Bull Case

Bear Case

Wheat Bull/Bear decision surface