Bull case
Export pull visible
+121.4% of weekly deliveries: Current-week exports are 432.1 kt against 355.8 kt of producer deliveries.
CGC weekly grain statsWheat Bull/BearAligned bull
Wheat Bull/Bear decision surface
Current stance
Current Wheat readMild Bull
Board score +32. 23% confidence.
Published desk thesis-of-record · US +32 / 45%
Thesis confidence / pressure
Bear pressure/Bull pressure
BearBalancedBull
Confirmed bull read23% confidenceSource coverage: Canada + US
Moderate-low conviction: the board has a directional read, but source agreement is still mixed.
Demand and flow support is outweighing supply pressure in the current Wheat read.
Both country packets lean constructive; check freshness and lead evidence. Source context and local movement sit below the visual read.
Mechanical evidence pressure
Proof rows below
Supply
Supply pressure
WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Demand / Exports
Demand neutral
Current-week export/delivery ratio is 121.4% against current-week producer deliveries.
Funds
Positioning neutral
CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.
Crop progress · Prairie + US condition · MB · SK · AB this week · Canada Prairie · Prairie mapSatellite moisture · Crop-stress belts · Stress thumbnailPrice proof · Spring · HRW · SRW · Agreement motion
Crop progress
Prairie + US condition
MB · SK · AB this week
Package week ending 2026-08-18
Prairie map
Canada
Canada Prairie
Week ending 2026-08-18
No scored Canada crop-progress weather domain yet
No scored condition metric yet for this side.
United States
United States
Week ending 2026-08-30
USDA progress visible; weather domain not attached
Spring harvestedscores77%
Winter harvestedscores96%
Prairie package
Manitobain
Report in for this package
Saskatchewanin
Report in for this package
Albertawaiting
Waiting on this province's report
Canada Prairie package is still filling in; US weather lean is bearish (supply cushion).
Satellite moisture
Crop-stress belts
Week ending 2026-08-16
US winter-wheat belt
stressed (bullish supply) · -0.37
Russia winter-wheat belt
healthy (bearish supply) · 0.36
Russia spring-wheat belt
near-normal · 0.07
This week, the US winter-wheat belt is showing crop stress — which tends to support prices; Russia's winter-wheat belt looks healthy — which tends to weigh on prices; Russia's spring-wheat belt looks near normal.
Open full Wheat Data map →Price proof
Spring · HRW · SRW
Agreement motion
Spr
HRW
SRW
Contracts split
Spring Wheat$7.25-0.45%
HRW$7.70+1.75%
SRW$7.01+2.83%
Wheat classes disagree on direction — treat price as lower-confidence confirmation only.
Swipe the cards, or tap a chip above. Desktop shows all three side by side.
Why this week
Bull and bear drivers
Icon language for the main pull and push. Both country packets lean constructive; check freshness and lead evidence.
Bear case
WASDE balance loosening
45.0% stocks/use: Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.
USDA WASDEDeeper proof
How we got here
ExpandEvidence cross-check · Relationship spiderweb · Source (what we watch) · Price basket proof · Packet trend context · Historical price context · Historical export context · USDA relationship read · Decision role · Wheat Crop Progress · Watch leads (what could change the thesis) · Read the evidence · What feeds this read
Deeper proof
How we got here
Source (what we watch)
Pressure (bull bear)
Read (what it means)
Crop Condition / WeatherHigh impactThe spring crop is 77% harvested, ahead of last year. The winter crop is 96% harvested, near last year's pace.Condition, harvest pace, heading, and short-term weather risk.NeutralMixed supply signal
What this means
Crop condition and weather are early supply clues. They matter most when poor condition, harvest delays, or moisture stress are confirmed by later balance-sheet, export, or price data.
Score effect
0 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
Condition, harvest pace, heading, and short-term weather risk.
SupplyWASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.USDA WASDE + USDA Quarterly Grain StocksSlightly bearishSupply pressure
What this means
Supply rows anchor the bear side when stocks, carryout, or production leave enough grain available. Tightening stocks or a production shock would move this lane toward bull support.
Score effect
-11 points of bearish pressure.
Sources
USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
Demand / ExportsCurrent-week export/delivery ratio is 121.4% against current-week producer deliveries.CGC weekly grain stats + USDA Export SalesNeutralDemand neutral
What this means
Demand rows test whether buyers are absorbing Wheat fast enough. Strong export sales or shipment pace can offset supply pressure, but demand does not overrule fresh supply risk by itself.
Score effect
+1 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
CGC weekly grain stats, USDA Export Sales
Movement / LogisticsNo active packet evidence in this lane.Canada Grain MonitorNeutralNeutral
What this means
Movement rows show whether grain is actually flowing through country elevators, rail, terminals, and ports. Slow flow can weaken demand proof even when sales look supportive.
Score effect
0 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
Canada Grain Monitor
Price / FXNo plain-English evidence line is attached to this lane yet.Grain price feedNeutralPrice neutral
What this means
Price and currency are confirmation. If futures and basis agree with the official data, confidence rises; if price fights the data, the board should stay cautious.
Score effect
0 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
Grain price feed
PositioningCFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.CFTC Commitments of TradersNeutralPositioning neutral
What this means
Positioning is timing and crowding context. It can warn about short-covering or liquidation risk, but fundamentals still decide the main direction.
Score effect
+1 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
CFTC Commitments of Traders
Watch LeadsWatch-only leads can change what the desk inspects next, but they do not move the read by themselves.Accepted leads that tell the desk what to inspect next.NeutralKey to watch
What this means
Watch leads tell the desk what to inspect next. They do not move the Wheat read unless tied back to an admitted official or market source.
Score effect
0 points of near neutral pressure.
Sources
Accepted leads that tell the desk what to inspect next.
Bearish pressureNeutralBullish pressure
Latest updateUSDAReleased Aug 31, 2026
Wheat Crop Progress - Week ending Aug 30, 2026
The spring crop is 77% harvested, ahead of last year. The winter crop is 96% harvested, near last year's pace.
Spring harvested
77%
62% last week; 72% last year
Winter harvested
96%
91% last week; 94% last year
Source: USDA Crop Progress
View full reportWatch leads (what could change the thesis)
Wheat onlyNext crop progress
Condition, harvest pace, and heading.
CGC export pace
Export pull visible
Basis / FX
Cash support versus currency and futures pressure.
Fund positioning
Crowded short or short-covering risk.
Evidence cross-check
Why the desk and scorecard can differ
The published desk thesis owns the farmer-facing headline. The deterministic scorecard remains a mechanical audit of admitted source rows, so disagreement is shown instead of silently replacing the desk call.
Published +32 / 23%Mechanical -4 / 0%
Deciding datumUS / SupplyOlder official row
-11 weighted points from USDA WASDE + USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Stocks/use: 45.0%. Period: 2026-09-01T18:46:03.855768+00:00.
Counterweight check: CA Demand is the main counterweight at +1. The deciding datum is 10 weighted points stronger.
Source-specific read: The judge keeps source role separate from effect size: official rows set the evidence stack, price confirms it, and watch leads stay outside the score.
Best bull offset
CA Demand +1
Current-week export/delivery ratio is 121.4% against current-week producer deliveries.
Best bear offset
US Supply -11
WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Mechanical cross-check: bearish pressure is still heavier than support. The published desk call remains Mild Bull because the weekly desk also reconciles bounded macro/event evidence and specialist disagreement that is not allowed to write directly into the deterministic source scorecard.
Wheat X Pulse · watch-only
What X is saying about Wheat
Field and market chatter ranked for the desk. This never moves the official Bull/Bear score.
Leaning bearish on XScore -0.359 · trust 49%
Tension vs official board · divergent
Tension: X Pulse is lean bearish while the official board is bullish. Desk should inspect whether X is early (weather/basis chatter) or noise — X cannot overturn the scorecard alone.
Official board stance used for comparison: bullish · Desk impact: Desk should treat the X lean as market psychology and early warning. Use tensionAlignment: aligned raises conviction, divergent lowers conviction / raises inspection priority, quiet means no X pressure today.
Provenance · where this came from
- Tables: x_scout_runs, x_market_signals
- Scout: grok_cli / daily_pulse
- Run date: 2026-06-01 · started May 31, 11:19 p.m. MDT
- Recency: Scout run is 112 days old — treat as stale watch context
- Trust: Composite confidence 49% · 2/2 prairie-weighted · price snapshot fresh at scout time
- Accepted / rejected: 2 / 0 · price snapshot fresh
- Artifact: C:\Users\kyle\Agriculture\bushel-board-app\data\X Scout Runs\2026-06-01\daily_pulse-raw.json
How we rank posts
Wheat X Pulse ranks accepted Wheat/Durum posts only. Each post gets a contribution from who posted it, where it points, direction × confidence, and how fresh it is. The board scorecard never uses this number.
Source tier 25%
Location 30%
Direction×conf 25%
Recency 10%
Corroboration 10%
Score authority none
X Pulse is watch-only. Authority order: official sources → prices → X watch evidence → daily bounded overlays → Friday desk thesis of record. Open /thesis?audit=1 for full admission and trust rule lists.
Top ranked Wheat posts
2 Wheat · 2 prairiebearishtier1contrib -0.6864
RealAgriculture highlights upcoming discussion on Canada's next agricultural policy framework alongside prairie equipment maker Bourgault and questions about challenging economic conditions for farms.
@realagriculture · Saskatchewan, Alberta · May 31, 3:35 p.m. MDT · tier w 1.00 · loc w 1.00 · recency w 1.00
Open postbullishtier4contrib 0.4935needs official check
Analyst posts on building Super El Niño signals with explicit June projections for hotter West and Central North America plus crop stress and food market volatility risks.
@gaurav_kochar · Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba · May 31, 12:53 p.m. MDT · tier w 0.55 · loc w 1.00 · recency w 1.00
Open postStanding watches (follow even if quiet)
EU Heatwave
bullish watchWestern EU / French wheat heat stress at grain fill
Why it matters: Trader chatter about a weather premium. Lower EU supply could support Canadian export demand and basis later — only if prices and official yield cuts confirm.
Watch-only trader/media chatter until MARS or official EU yield revisions corroborate.
US Northern Plains / HRW quality
bullish watchNorthern Plains dryness risk and mixed HRW harvest quality chatter
Why it matters: US spring-wheat yield risk or HRW quality issues can offset a comfortable global-supply story. Confirm with USDA crop progress and harvest samples before treating as a driver.
Watch-only until USDA crop progress / harvest quality rows move.
Swarm desk reference: use wheatSentimentScore (-0.359) and tensionAlignment (divergent) as watch context only. Impact on thesis score = 0. Friday desks may cite this card when explaining conviction or early weather leads, but must still ground the published read in official packet rows.
Relationship spiderweb
Distance shows mechanical scorecard impact
Closer nodes carry more deterministic score weight. Bear pressure sits left, bull support sits right, and thicker edges mean bigger weighted points. The published desk thesis remains the headline above.
Inner: high impactMiddle: contextOuter: watch
Inner ring
high impact, closest to the read
#1US Supply -11
Middle ring
meaningful context
No active lanes in this ring.
Outer ring
watch or light pressure
#2CA Demand +1#3US Positioning +1
USDA Wheat sweep
Official U.S. rows behind the Wheat read
These rows explain the U.S. side of the scorecard. Crop stress can support price, but WASDE, stocks, exports, and price confirmation decide whether it changes the full Wheat read.
USDA relationship read
Read the row chain left to right before changing the Wheat stance.
1
Condition signal
Crop Progress shows whether weather is creating yield stress before the balance sheet catches up.
2
Balance anchor
WASDE turns acres, yield, exports, and ending stocks into the baseline supply cushion.
3
Demand confirmation
Export Sales tests whether buyers are pulling enough Wheat to hit the WASDE export target.
4
Inventory check
Quarterly Stocks checks the actual grain cushion and can confirm or challenge WASDE.
5
Price confirmation
The Spring Wheat / HRW / SRW basket shows whether futures are trading the official story.
Cadence-limitedStrong source proof
Crop Progress
USDA Crop Progress
Condition, harvest, and heading pressure
Decision role
Condition signal
First supply clue: crop stress can raise bull risk, but it needs WASDE, stocks, exports, or price to confirm that the system is actually tightening.
Watch only right now
No score move in this packet
The spring crop is 77% harvested, ahead of last year. The winter crop is 96% harvested, near last year's pace.
Cadence: Weekly in seasonLatest row: Aug 30, 2026
Deciding rowStrong source proof
WASDE balance
USDA WASDE
Production, exports, ending stocks, and stocks/use
Decision role
Balance anchor
Balance-sheet anchor: WASDE decides whether crop stress is large enough to change stocks/use, export targets, and ending stocks.
-11 weighted points
Stocks/use: 45.0%
WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Cadence: MonthlyLatest row: Aug 1, 2026
Cadence-limitedStale-risk source
Export Sales
USDA Export Sales
Weekly demand execution versus USDA target
Decision role
Demand confirmation
Demand test: this row stays watch context until the next official sales release proves whether buyers are keeping pace with the WASDE export target.
0 weighted points
No score move in this packet
Cadence-limited demand proof. Keep watching whether sales confirm or challenge the WASDE export target.
Cadence: Weekly with publication lagLatest row: Aug 20, 2026
Bear pressureStale-risk source
Quarterly Stocks
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
Inventory cushion and surprise versus balance-sheet context
Decision role
Inventory check
Inventory test: quarterly stocks check the actual cushion. A surprise can challenge WASDE, but between releases this stays cadence-bound context.
-11 weighted points
Quarterly stocks: 35,386 kt
WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Cadence: QuarterlyLatest row: Mar 1, 2026
Price basket proof
Spring Wheat / HRW / SRW confirmation
Spring Wheat
MGEX-0.4%
USD 7.25/$/bu; Aug 24, 2026
HRW Wheat
KCBT+1.8%
USD 7.7/$/bu; Aug 24, 2026
SRW Wheat
CBOT+2.8%
USD 7.01/$/bu; Aug 24, 2026
Packet trend context
Short settlement window from the current packet; use it to judge whether the latest price move confirms the official source stack.
Spring Wheat
Barchart latest-only leg+2.9%
Aug 19, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026. Latest close 7.245 USD/bu; latest daily change -0.4%.
HRW Wheat
4 packet closes+1.0%
Aug 19, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026. Latest close 7.695 USD/bu; latest daily change +1.8%.
SRW Wheat
4 packet closes+3.0%
Aug 19, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026. Latest close 7.008 USD/bu; latest daily change +2.8%.
Historical price context
Public-safe Wheat futures history from the price feed. This shows whether the recent market tape confirms the official data stack.
Spring Wheat
MGEX
+1.4%
Jul 24, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026
Latest close 7.245 USD/bu; range 6.845 USD/bu-7.278 USD/bu.
HRW Wheat
KCBT
+1.3%
Jul 23, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026
Latest close 7.695 USD/bu; range 6.993 USD/bu-7.695 USD/bu.
SRW Wheat
CBOT
+0.6%
Jul 23, 2026 to Aug 24, 2026
Latest close 7.008 USD/bu; range 6.303 USD/bu-7.008 USD/bu.
This is market confirmation only. A split basket, short packet window, or weak history lowers confidence; it does not overrule official supply, demand, and movement rows by itself.
Historical export context
Demand pull beside the price tape
Exports show whether grain is actually disappearing. This is demand confirmation only; it does not overrule official supply, stocks, or price confirmation by itself.
Canada CGC export pull
CGC weekly grain stats; season not reported.
n/a
No history rows
Latest row No latest row; source through No latest row.
not reported exports against not reported producer deliveries.
U.S. Export Sales
USDA Export Sales; season not reported.
not reported
No history rows
Latest row No latest row; source through No latest row.
not reported weekly exports; not reported total commitments. Projection pace not admitted for this row.
Read the evidence
The top board is visual-first. These notes explain the same scoring for anyone who wants the longer read.
Why the board is leaning this way
Both country packets lean constructive; check freshness and lead evidence. CA +2 Lean bull (Export pull visible); US +32 Mild Bull (Managed money net long).
Bull case
Export pull visible: +121.4% of weekly deliveries: Current-week exports are 432.1 kt against 355.8 kt of producer deliveries.
Bear case
WASDE balance loosening: 45.0% stocks/use: Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.
Source rows behind the read
Active official inputs: CGC weekly grain stats, CFTC Commitments of Traders, Canada Grain Monitor, Grain price feed, USDA Export Sales, USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks. Source geography is evidence context; this screen keeps one Wheat read.
What feeds this read
7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks· official inputCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding· official inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure· official inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline· official input
Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.
Market intelligence from public sources only. Not an instruction to price, hedge, or market grain. Data follows official publication schedules and may lag.
Your area
Enter your postal code to see your province's grain movement and any prices posted near you. Saved on this device only - no account needed.
Official source rows have watch items to inspect
Source health: 6 strong freshness rows; 6 watch source groups across 8 packet rows. 6 source groups need attention across 8 packet rows. Confidence is source-completeness, not a marketing instruction.
Cached board: freshPrairie crop progress: partial mb sk; loaded MB+SK (Crop Report - 2026-05-07, Manitoba Crop Report - 2026-08-18)Last source run Sep 1, 12:45 p.m. MDT
Current snapshot
Generated Sep 1, 12:46 p.m. MDTCached boardCache freshBoard update modeweekly packet0/2 today
Source watermark Sep 1, 12:45 p.m. MDT; latest live run Sep 1, 12:45 p.m. MDT. Direct packet data; no archive fallback.
Board update mode: No visible Bull/Bear row has a daily overlay; weekly thesis packet controls the displayed scores until a review-gated daily row matches the current period. Daily overlays are review-gated status rows, not proof that production write automation is enabled.
Wheat pilot
Aligned bull / +31Wheat Pressure Map
Active Wheat evidence, relationship links, and guardrails across every known source lane before the board prints the final Bull/Bear read.
Source lanes
17
14 have current proof in this view
Causal factors
10
10 active or proof-backed
Graph links
34
27 can affect pressure
Packet contributions
8
8 score-backed; 5 parked gaps
Source data lanes
4 active-driver sourcesActive driverScores
CGC weekly grain stats
2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.
Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
Current packet contribution +0.93
CA demand: +0.93 (+3.75 x 25%)
Sources: CGC weekly grain stats; confidence low; freshness stale.
Current-week export/delivery ratio: 121.4%Current-week process/delivery ratio: 3.6%
Bull: Current-week export/delivery ratio is 121.4% against current-week producer deliveries.
MissingProof only
CGC import proof
No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.
Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
AvailableScores
Canada supply-disposition table
Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-07-29.
Factors: Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
AvailableScores
Prairie crop-progress reports
Latest collector success; finished 2026-09-01T18:45:28.857135+00:00.
Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing, Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
AvailableScores
USDA Crop Progress
Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-08-30.
Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
LaggedScores
USDA Export Sales
Packet freshness usable but stale-risk; latest 2026-08-20.
Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
Current packet contribution 0
US demand: 0 (0 x 24%)
Sources: USDA Export Sales; confidence low; freshness stale.
Active driverScores
USDA WASDE mapped balance
1 active Wheat driver in the current row.
Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
Current packet contribution -11.15
US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)
Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.
Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%
Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Active driverScores
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
1 active Wheat driver in the current row.
Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
Current packet contribution -11.15
US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)
Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.
Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%
Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
LaggedScores
Canada Grain Monitor
Packet freshness usable but stale-risk; latest 2026-08-18.
Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
Current packet contribution +0.37
CA logistics: +0.37 (+3.75 x 10%)
Sources: Canada Grain Monitor; confidence low; freshness stale.
Unloads vs four-week average: +34.0%Vancouver vessel lineup: 24
Bull: Grain Monitor unloads are +34.0% versus the four-week average.
AvailableScores
CGC Producer Cars
Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-08-24.
Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Active driverScores
CFTC Commitments of Traders
2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.
Factors: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
Current packet contribution +1.11
CA positioning: +0.37 (+7.5 x 5%)
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence low; freshness stale.
Managed-money net: +11,663 contractsWeekly net change: +1,784 contracts
Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.
US positioning: +0.73 (+7.5 x 10%)
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence low; freshness stale.
Managed-money net: +11,663 contractsWeekly net change: +1,784 contracts
Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.
LaggedBounded context
Daily futures price feed
Packet freshness usable but stale-risk; latest 2026-08-24.
Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
Current packet contribution 0
CA price: 0 (0 x 15%)
Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness stale.
Spring Wheat futures change: -0.4%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.25/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: +1.8%
US price: 0 (0 x 14%)
Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness stale.
Spring Wheat futures change: -0.4%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.25/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: +1.8%
MissingBounded context
USD/CAD FX rates
No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.
Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
MissingBounded context
Intraday grain-price quotes
No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.
Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
AvailableWatch-only
Raw WASDE/PSD world balance
Latest collector success; finished 2026-08-24T21:16:51.990671+00:00.
Factors: Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Watch-onlyWatch-only
X Pulse scout proof
Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.
Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Watch-onlyWatch-only
X Pulse accepted signals
Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.
Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Wheat factor nodes
3 bounded price lanesActive driverOfficial inputsupply
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
4/4 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.
Current packet contribution -11.15
US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)
Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.
Stocks/use: 45.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%
Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 45.0%.
Do not use generic Wheat as a class-specific Wheat proxy.
AvailableOfficial inputsupply
Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline
1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Slower supply-disposition context should anchor the read, not override fresher weekly movement.
AvailableOfficial inputweather
Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing
1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Spring Cereals rows are official group-level timing proxies for the public Wheat lane only; they do not unlock class-specific Wheat proxy scoring.
AvailableOfficial inputweather
Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy
1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Cropland and All Crops moisture rows are broad provincial proxy evidence, not crop-specific or class-specific Wheat condition, quality, or yield facts; mapper confidence is capped as proxy evidence.
Active driverOfficial inputdemand
CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
3/3 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.
Current packet contribution +0.93
CA demand: +0.93 (+3.75 x 25%)
Sources: CGC weekly grain stats; confidence low; freshness stale.
Current-week export/delivery ratio: 121.4%Current-week process/delivery ratio: 3.6%
Bull: Current-week export/delivery ratio is 121.4% against current-week producer deliveries.
US demand: 0 (0 x 24%)
Sources: USDA Export Sales; confidence low; freshness stale.
Tender-level Black Sea/EU/Australia collection is parked.
AvailableOfficial inputlogistics
Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution +0.37
CA logistics: +0.37 (+3.75 x 10%)
Sources: Canada Grain Monitor; confidence low; freshness stale.
Unloads vs four-week average: +34.0%Vancouver vessel lineup: 24
Bull: Grain Monitor unloads are +34.0% versus the four-week average.
Canada logistics are admitted with visible lag; US logistics remains parked for Wheat V1.
Watch-onlyWatch-onlysupply
Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition
1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
Raw WASDE/PSD can frame world wheat balance; origin-specific tender, freight, and policy feeds are not admitted.
Watch-onlyWatch-onlydemand
X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution: none from this lane.
X Pulse is watch-only: it cannot author, rank, or move Wheat thesis facts without official-source or desk corroboration.
LaggedPrice contextprice
Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
1/3 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.
Current packet contribution 0
CA price: 0 (0 x 15%)
Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness stale.
Spring Wheat futures change: -0.4%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.25/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: +1.8%
US price: 0 (0 x 14%)
Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness stale.
Spring Wheat futures change: -0.4%Spring Wheat settlement price: USD 7.25/$/buHRW Wheat futures change: +1.8%
Quality-grade source feed is parked.
Active driverOfficial inputpositioning
CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
1/1 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.
Current packet contribution +1.11
CA positioning: +0.37 (+7.5 x 5%)
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence low; freshness stale.
Managed-money net: +11,663 contractsWeekly net change: +1,784 contracts
Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.
US positioning: +0.73 (+7.5 x 10%)
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence low; freshness stale.
Managed-money net: +11,663 contractsWeekly net change: +1,784 contracts
Bull: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 11,663 contracts, with weekly net change +1,784 contracts.
Positioning confirms or challenges source facts; it does not replace supply and demand evidence.
Wheat score nodes
CAWeekly packet
+2
Lean bull
0%
USPublished desk thesis Jul 14, 7:09 p.m. MDT
+32
Mild Bull
45%
Final read23% avg confidence
+31
CA +2 Lean bull (Export pull visible); US +32 Mild Bull (Managed money net long).
Active evidence drivers
CA bullOfficial inputdemand
Export pull visible
+121.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats
Linked factor: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
CA bullOfficial inputpositioning
Managed money support
11,663 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders
Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
CA bearOfficial inputdemand
Domestic processing thin
+3.6% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats
Linked factor: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
US bullOfficial inputpositioning
Managed money net long
11,663 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders
Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
US bearOfficial inputsupply
WASDE balance loosening
45.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE
Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
US bearOfficial inputsupply
Quarterly stocks heavier than expected
+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
All graph links
6 watch-only linksCGC weekly grain stats
CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
score inputCGC import proof
CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
proof onlyCanada supply-disposition table
Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline
score inputPrairie crop-progress reports
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
score inputPrairie crop-progress reports
Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing
score inputPrairie crop-progress reports
Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy
score inputUSDA Crop Progress
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
score inputUSDA Export Sales
CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
score inputUSDA WASDE mapped balance
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
score inputUSDA WASDE mapped balance
CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
score inputUSDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
score inputCanada Grain Monitor
Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
score inputCGC Producer Cars
Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
score inputCFTC Commitments of Traders
CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
score inputDaily futures price feed
Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
bounded contextUSD/CAD FX rates
Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
bounded contextIntraday grain-price quotes
Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
bounded contextRaw WASDE/PSD world balance
Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition
watch onlyX Pulse scout proof
X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
watch onlyX Pulse accepted signals
X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
watch onlyCanada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputSaskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputPrairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputCanadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputBlack Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
watch onlyX Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
watch onlyWheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
bounded contextCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
score inputCanada Wheat
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
country scoreUS Wheat
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
country scoreCorn
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
substituteBlack Sea/EU/Australia
Wheat Bull/Bear pressure
competitor originRule firing now
Quality scarcity plus price confirmation
When: Crop stress or quality risk aligns with export pull and wheat/corn or wheat-class price strength.
Market response: Bull pressure is stronger because supply quality, demand pull, and relative value are pointing the same way.
Confidence: Confidence stays lower while class-specific Wheat mapping and grade-quality feeds are parked.
Source boundary
Tender-level Black Sea/EU/Australia collection is parked.
Parked Wheat gaps
class-specific Wheat mapping, global origin collector, protein/falling-number feed, local basis.
Relationship links
Price contextsubstitute
Corn
Feed wheat competes with corn when spreads narrow.
Watch-onlycompetitor origin
Black Sea/EU/Australia
Global origins can cap wheat even when local data is supportive.
Wheat Packet Details
Canada and US Wheat packet cards with source freshness, bull/bear cases, and provenance.
Canada0% confidenceScore source: Deterministic scorecard
Wheat
Crop year 2026-2027 / week 2
+2
Lean bull
Bull Case
Export pull visible
lowCurrent-week exports are 432.1 kt against 355.8 kt of producer deliveries.
+121.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats
Managed money support
lowManaged money is net long in the primary positioning row for Wheat.
11,663 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders
Bear Case
Domestic processing thin
lowProcess deliveries are 12.7 kt in the packet, so domestic demand is not offsetting weak export pull in this read.
+3.6% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats
What feeds this read
7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks· official inputCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding· official inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure· official inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline· official input
Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.
Source freshness
Packet stamped Sep 1, 12:46 p.m. MDT
Posted cash prices: emptyWeather context: emptyCGC weekly grain stats: usable but stale-riskCanada Grain Monitor: usable but stale-riskCFTC Commitments of Traders: usable but stale-riskGrain price feed: usable but stale-risk+5 more
Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.
Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.
+5 more warnings hidden
Source provenance
| Source | Latest period | Cadence | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Posted cash prices (posted_prices) | none | operator-entered | price |
| Weather context (weather_cache) | none | cached forecast | weather |
| CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations) | 2026-2027 wk 2 | weekly Thu PM | supply / demand / logistics |
| Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots) | 2026-2027 wk 1 | weekly Wed, naturally lagged | logistics |
| CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions) | 2026-2027 wk 3 / 2026-08-18 | weekly Fri PM | positioning |
| Grain price feed (grain_prices) | 2026-08-24 / Corn / ZC | daily market days | price |
| Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries) | 2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15 | user-entered | farmer behavior |
| Farm crop plan (crop_plans) | 2025-2026 / Wheat | user-entered | farmer behavior |
| CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) | 2026-2027 wk 4 | weekly | logistics |
| Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition) | 2026-2027 / AAFC_2026-07-20 | periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh | supply / demand |
| USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped) | 2026 / 2026 / 2026-08-01 | monthly WASDE / PSD | supply / demand / international context |
US45% confidenceScore source: Published desk thesis Jul 14
Wheat
Market year 2025
+32
Mild Bull
Bull Case
Managed money net long
lowPrimary CFTC positioning is net long in the latest packet row.
11,663 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders
Bear Case
WASDE balance loosening
mediumEnding stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.
45.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE
Quarterly stocks heavier than expected
lowUSDA quarterly stocks show 35,386 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and +5.2% versus year ago.
+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks
What feeds this read
7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads
Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks· official inputCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding· official inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure· official inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline· official input
Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.
Source freshness
Packet stamped Sep 1, 12:46 p.m. MDT
CFTC Commitments of Traders: usable but stale-riskGrain price feed: usable but stale-riskUSDA Export Sales: usable but stale-riskUSDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: usable but stale-riskUSDA WASDE: strongUSDA acreage estimates: strong+1 more
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.
Grain price feed (grain_prices) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.
+1 more warnings hidden
Source provenance
| Source | Latest period | Cadence | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions) | 2026-2027 wk 3 / 2026-08-18 | weekly Fri PM | positioning |
| Grain price feed (grain_prices) | 2026-08-24 / Corn / ZC | daily market days | price |
| USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) | 2025-2026 / 2026-08-20 | weekly Thu AM | demand |
| USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) | Q1 / 2026-03-01 | quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep | measured stocks / supply surprise |
| USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped) | 2026 / 2026 / 2026-08-01 | monthly WASDE / PSD | supply / demand / international context |
| USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates) | 2026 / 2026-03-31 | annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions | planted acreage / supply base |
| USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress) | 2026 / 2026-08-30 | weekly Mon during growing season | supply / weather |