Live source packets

Bull/Bear Thesis Board

Source-backed Canada and US grain calls from the live thesis packet spine. V1 stays hard-gated to major grains, with smaller CGC labels and US rice/cotton kept off the public board.

Market intelligence from public sources only. Not an instruction to price, hedge, or market grain. Data follows official publication schedules and may lag.

Farmer read first

Source-backed pressure summary

One pass before the big table: 7 of 7 V1 rows are source-backed or intentionally Canada-first; parked wheat classes stay off the public board until class-safe mapping exists.

5 country splits

Most constructive

Corn shows the strongest source-backed bull pressure in the CA read at +24 (68% confidence).

Lead evidence: CA Export pull visible (+214.7% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats).

Most cautious

Soybeans shows the strongest source-backed bear pressure in the CA read at -24 (68% confidence).

Lead evidence: CA Domestic processing thin (0.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats).

How to use it

Start with: Barley (country split), Corn (country split), Oats (country split). Use it to choose what to inspect next, not as an instruction to market grain.

All Grains at a Glance

Quick scan first: every V1 grain, Canada and US side by side, with the current bull/bear lean. The reasoning breakdown stays below for the rows worth digging into.

7 grain rows

Country split = evidence disagreesOne-country = V1 has only CA or US modeled

GrainCanadaUSRead

Corn

Open firstCountry split

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA+24

Bull tilt68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US-12

Lean bear54%

Score source: Weekly packet

Open firstCountry splitSource-backed

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA +24 Bull tilt (Export pull visible); US -12 Lean bear (WASDE domestic use cut).

Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Soybeans

Open firstCountry split

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA-24

Bear tilt68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US+24

Bull tilt54%

Score source: Weekly packet

Open firstCountry splitSource-backed

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA -24 Bear tilt (Domestic processing thin); US +24 Bull tilt (WASDE balance tightening).

Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Wheat

Open firstCountry split

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA-13

Lean bear68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US+5

Lean bull54%

Score source: Weekly packet

Open firstCountry splitSource-backed

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA -13 Lean bear (Domestic processing thin); US +5 Lean bull (US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)).

Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Durum

One-country readCanada only

Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1.

CA-1

Lean bear68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US: not modeled in V1

One-country readCanada onlyCanada-first

Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1.

Durum has a Canada packet in V1, but no matching US overview market is modeled on this board.

Canada packet is present; no matching US overview market is modeled for this V1 row.

Canola

One-country readCanada only

Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1.

CA+11

Lean bull68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US: Canada-first lane

One-country readCanada onlyCanada-first

Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1.

Canola has a Canada packet in V1, but no matching US overview market is modeled on this board.

Canada packet is present; no matching US overview market is modeled for this V1 row.

Barley

Open firstCountry split

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA-12

Lean bear68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US+7

Lean bull54%

Score source: Weekly packet

Open firstCountry splitSource-backed

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA -12 Lean bear (Canadian seeding progress cushions supply); US +7 Lean bull (US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)).

Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Oats

Open firstCountry split

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA+12

Lean bull68%

Score source: Weekly packet

US0

Balanced54%

Score source: Weekly packet

Open firstCountry splitSource-backed

Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row.

CA +12 Lean bull (Export pull visible); US 0 Balanced (Managed money net long).

Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Major Grain Thesis Matrix

Canada and US major-grain calls in one read. Country markers show where the evidence differs; V1 excludes smaller CGC labels plus US rice and cotton.

Score guide: negative leans bearish, positive leans bullish; confidence reflects source completeness and freshness, not a marketing instruction.

7 grain rows

Major Canada and US grain thesis matrix with stance, confidence, and strongest bull and bear evidence.
Grain	Canada	US	Strongest Bull Points	Strongest Bear Points	Country Read
Corn	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +24 Bull tilt	US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet -12 Lean bear	CA Export pull visible high +214.7% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Domestic processing support high +36.3% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats US WASDE export projection raised medium 635 kt exports / USDA WASDE US Export sales demand low 1,000,374 mt / USDA Export Sales	CA Positioning pressure medium -5,325 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders US WASDE domestic use cut medium -635 kt domestic use / USDA WASDE US Managed money net short medium -5,325 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders	Open firstCountry splitSource-backed Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA +24 Bull tilt (Export pull visible); US -12 Lean bear (WASDE domestic use cut). Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.
Soybeans	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet -24 Bear tilt	US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +24 Bull tilt	CA Tight carryout context medium +6.4% of total supply / Canada supply-disposition table US WASDE balance tightening medium 8.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE US WASDE crush demand raised medium 544 kt crush / USDA WASDE	CA Domestic processing thin medium 0.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Canadian seeding progress cushions supply medium +76.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports US WASDE export projection cut medium -545 kt exports / USDA WASDE US Quarterly stocks heavier than expected low +10.1% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks	Open firstCountry splitSource-backed Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA -24 Bear tilt (Domestic processing thin); US +24 Bull tilt (WASDE balance tightening). Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.
Wheat	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet -13 Lean bear	US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +5 Lean bull	CA Export pull visible high +188.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats US US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy) medium 27.0% good/excellent crop-progress proxy / USDA Crop Progress US Managed money net long medium 9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders	CA Domestic processing thin medium +3.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Positioning pressure medium 9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders US WASDE balance loosening medium 46.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE US Quarterly stocks heavier than expected low +5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks	Open firstCountry splitSource-backed Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA -13 Lean bear (Domestic processing thin); US +5 Lean bull (US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)). Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.
Durum	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet -1 Lean bear	US US: not modeled in V1	CA Export pull visible high +74.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats	CA Domestic processing thin medium 0.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Canadian seeding progress cushions supply low +87.7% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports	One-country readCanada onlyCanada-first Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1. Durum has a Canada packet in V1, but no matching US overview market is modeled on this board. Canada packet is present; no matching US overview market is modeled for this V1 row.
Canola	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +11 Lean bull	US US: Canada-first lane	CA Domestic processing support high +36.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Managed money support medium 62,219 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders	CA Canadian seeding progress cushions supply medium +77.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports CA Provisional futures pressure low -1.6% latest-only / Grain price feed	One-country readCanada onlyCanada-first Use as Canada context only; no matching US packet is modeled in V1. Canola has a Canada packet in V1, but no matching US overview market is modeled on this board. Canada packet is present; no matching US overview market is modeled for this V1 row.
Barley	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet -12 Lean bear	US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +7 Lean bull	US US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy) medium 47.0% good/excellent crop-progress proxy / USDA Crop Progress US Quarterly stocks tighter than expected low -9.7% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks	CA Canadian seeding progress cushions supply medium +83.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports US WASDE balance loosening medium 40.2% stocks/use / USDA WASDE	Open firstCountry splitSource-backed Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA -12 Lean bear (Canadian seeding progress cushions supply); US +7 Lean bull (US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)). Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.
Oats	CA68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet +12 Lean bull	US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet 0 Balanced	CA Export pull visible high +71.3% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats CA Domestic processing support high +31.7% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats US Managed money net long medium 595 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders	CA Futures pressure medium -2.3% / Grain price feed CA Positioning pressure medium 595 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders US Futures pressure medium -2.3% / Grain price feed	Open firstCountry splitSource-backed Canada and US disagree; read both lead drivers before relying on this row. CA +12 Lean bull (Export pull visible); US 0 Balanced (Managed money net long). Canada and US packets are present; use this as a scouting-quality thesis row, not a pricing instruction.

Your area

Enter your postal code to see your province's grain movement and any prices posted near you. Saved on this device only - no account needed.

Official source rows have watch items to inspect

Source health: 66 strong freshness rows; 3 watch source groups across 17 packet rows. 3 source groups need attention across 17 packet rows. Confidence is source-completeness, not a marketing instruction.

Cached board: freshLast source run Jun 15, 5:58 p.m. MDT

Current snapshot

Generated Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDTCached boardCache freshBoard update modeweekly packet0/12 today

Source watermark Jun 15, 5:58 p.m. MDT; latest live run Jun 15, 5:58 p.m. MDT. Direct packet data; no archive fallback.

Board update mode: No visible Bull/Bear row has a daily overlay; weekly thesis packet controls the displayed scores until a review-gated daily row matches the current period. Daily overlays are review-gated status rows, not proof that production write automation is enabled.

Wheat pilot

Wheat Pressure Map

Active Wheat evidence, relationship links, and guardrails across every known source lane before the board prints the final Bull/Bear read.

Country split / -5

Source lanes

15 have current proof in this view

Causal factors

10 active or proof-backed

Graph links

27 can affect pressure

Packet contributions

8 score-backed; 5 parked gaps

Source data lanes

7 active-driver sources

Active driverScores

CGC weekly grain stats

2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution +1.25

CA demand: +1.25 (+5 x 25%)

Sources: CGC weekly grain stats; confidence high; freshness strong.

Current-week export/delivery ratio: 188.4%Current-week process/delivery ratio: 3.0%

Bull: Current-week export/delivery ratio is 188.4% against current-week producer deliveries.

MissingProof only

CGC import proof

No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

Canada supply-disposition table

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-03-14.

Factors: Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableScores

Prairie crop-progress reports

Latest collector success; finished 2026-06-15T01:25:57.279653+00:00.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing, Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Active driverScores

USDA Crop Progress

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Current packet contribution +3.78

US weather: +3.78 (+35 x 11%)

Sources: USDA Crop Progress; confidence high; freshness strong.

Good/excellent: 27.0%Good/excellent YoY: -25.0%

Bull: US crop stress supports price: good/excellent is 27.0%, -25.0% versus last year.

Active driverScores

USDA Export Sales

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Active driverScores

USDA WASDE mapped balance

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks, CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 46.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 46.0%.

Active driverScores

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

1 active Wheat driver in the current row.

Factors: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 46.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 46.0%.

AvailableScores

Canada Grain Monitor

Packet freshness strong; latest 2026-06-09.

Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

LaggedScores

CGC Producer Cars

Packet freshness usable but stale-risk; latest 2026-05-22.

Factors: Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Current packet contribution +1.5

CA logistics: +1.5 (+15 x 10%)

Sources: CGC Producer Cars; confidence low; freshness stale.

Producer-car allocations: 540Producer cars to US destinations: 63

Bull: Producer-car allocations add direct rail movement support with 540 cars.

Active driverScores

CFTC Commitments of Traders

2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.

Factors: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

Current packet contribution -2.95

CA positioning: -1 (-20 x 5%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +9,956 contractsWeekly net change: -8,400 contracts

Bear: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 9,956 contracts, with weekly net change -8,400 contracts.

US positioning: -1.95 (-20 x 10%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +9,956 contractsWeekly net change: -8,400 contracts

Bear: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 9,956 contracts, with weekly net change -8,400 contracts.

Active driverBounded context

Daily futures price feed

2 active Wheat drivers in the current row.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution -2.91

CA price: -1.47 (-10 x 15%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness strong.

Futures change: -0.6%Settlement price: USD 7.11/$/bu

Bear: Fresh grain-price context shows futures pressure: -0.6% at USD 7.11/$/bu on 2026-06-13. Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat this as provisional price momentum only.

US price: -1.44 (-10 x 14%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness strong.

Futures change: -0.6%Settlement price: USD 7.11/$/bu

AvailableBounded context

USD/CAD FX rates

Latest collector success; finished 2026-06-09T15:48:46.187924+00:00.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

MissingBounded context

Intraday grain-price quotes

No current packet or source-run proof is attached to this view.

Factors: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

AvailableWatch-only

Raw WASDE/PSD world balance

Latest collector success; finished 2026-06-13T01:58:28.171074+00:00.

Factors: Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Watch-onlyWatch-only

X Pulse scout proof

Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.

Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Watch-onlyWatch-only

X Pulse accepted signals

Latest scout success; accepted 2, rejected 0; Wheat watch leads 2.

Factors: X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Wheat factor nodes

3 bounded price lanes

Active driverOfficial inputsupply

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

4/4 source lanes visible; 3 active drivers.

Current packet contribution -11.15

US supply: -11.15 (-41.25 x 27%)

Sources: USDA WASDE, USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks; confidence low; freshness stale.

Stocks/use: 46.0%Quarterly stocks: 35,386 ktStocks vs last year: +5.2%

Bear: WASDE balance is loosening with stocks/use at 46.0%.

Do not use generic Wheat as a class-specific Wheat proxy.

AvailableOfficial inputsupply

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Slower supply-disposition context should anchor the read, not override fresher weekly movement.

AvailableOfficial inputweather

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Spring Cereals rows are official group-level timing proxies for the public Wheat lane only; they do not unlock class-specific Wheat proxy scoring.

AvailableOfficial inputweather

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Cropland and All Crops moisture rows are broad provincial proxy evidence, not crop-specific or class-specific Wheat condition, quality, or yield facts; mapper confidence is capped as proxy evidence.

Active driverOfficial inputdemand

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

3/3 source lanes visible; 3 active drivers.

Current packet contribution +1.25

CA demand: +1.25 (+5 x 25%)

Sources: CGC weekly grain stats; confidence high; freshness strong.

Current-week export/delivery ratio: 188.4%Current-week process/delivery ratio: 3.0%

Bull: Current-week export/delivery ratio is 188.4% against current-week producer deliveries.

Tender-level Black Sea/EU/Australia collection is parked.

AvailableOfficial inputlogistics

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution +1.5

CA logistics: +1.5 (+15 x 10%)

Sources: CGC Producer Cars; confidence low; freshness stale.

Producer-car allocations: 540Producer cars to US destinations: 63

Bull: Producer-car allocations add direct rail movement support with 540 cars.

Canada logistics are admitted with visible lag; US logistics remains parked for Wheat V1.

Watch-onlyWatch-onlysupply

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

1/1 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

Raw WASDE/PSD can frame world wheat balance; origin-specific tender, freight, and policy feeds are not admitted.

Watch-onlyWatch-onlydemand

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

2/2 source lanes visible; 0 active drivers.

Current packet contribution: none from this lane.

X Pulse is watch-only: it cannot author, rank, or move Wheat thesis facts without official-source or desk corroboration.

Active driverPrice contextprice

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

2/3 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.

Current packet contribution -2.91

CA price: -1.47 (-10 x 15%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness strong.

Futures change: -0.6%Settlement price: USD 7.11/$/bu

US price: -1.44 (-10 x 14%)

Sources: Grain price feed; confidence low; freshness strong.

Futures change: -0.6%Settlement price: USD 7.11/$/bu

Quality-grade source feed is parked.

Active driverOfficial inputpositioning

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

1/1 source lanes visible; 2 active drivers.

Current packet contribution -2.95

CA positioning: -1 (-20 x 5%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +9,956 contractsWeekly net change: -8,400 contracts

Bear: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 9,956 contracts, with weekly net change -8,400 contracts.

US positioning: -1.95 (-20 x 10%)

Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders; confidence high; freshness strong.

Managed-money net: +9,956 contractsWeekly net change: -8,400 contracts

Bear: CFTC primary managed-money positioning is net long by 9,956 contracts, with weekly net change -8,400 contracts.

Positioning confirms or challenges source facts; it does not replace supply and demand evidence.

Wheat score nodes

CAWeekly packet

-13

Lean bear

68%

USWeekly packet

Lean bull

54%

Final read61% avg confidence

-5

Country split: CA -13 versus US +5.

Active evidence drivers

CA bullOfficial inputdemand

Export pull visible

+188.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Linked factor: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

CA bearOfficial inputdemand

Domestic processing thin

+3.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Linked factor: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

CA bearPrice contextprice

Provisional futures pressure

-0.6% latest-only / Grain price feed

Linked factor: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

CA bearOfficial inputpositioning

Positioning pressure

9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

US bullOfficial inputsupply

US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)

27.0% good/excellent crop-progress proxy / USDA Crop Progress

Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

US bullOfficial inputdemand

Export sales demand

95,094 mt / USDA Export Sales

Linked factor: CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

US bullOfficial inputpositioning

Managed money net long

9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Linked factor: CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

US bearOfficial inputsupply

WASDE balance loosening

46.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

US bearOfficial inputsupply

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Linked factor: Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

US bearPrice contextprice

Provisional futures pressure

-0.6% latest-only / Grain price feed

Linked factor: Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

All graph links

6 watch-only links

CGC weekly grain stats

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

CGC import proof

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

proof only

Canada supply-disposition table

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

score input

Prairie crop-progress reports

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

score input

USDA Crop Progress

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

USDA Export Sales

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

USDA WASDE mapped balance

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

USDA WASDE mapped balance

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

score input

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

score input

Canada Grain Monitor

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

score input

CGC Producer Cars

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

score input

CFTC Commitments of Traders

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

score input

Daily futures price feed

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

USD/CAD FX rates

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

Intraday grain-price quotes

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

bounded context

Raw WASDE/PSD world balance

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

watch only

X Pulse scout proof

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

watch only

X Pulse accepted signals

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

watch only

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canada Wheat supply-disposition baseline

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Saskatchewan spring-cereal crop-development timing

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Prairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

CGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canadian port, rail, terminal, and producer-car execution

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Black Sea, EU, Australia, and other export-origin competition

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

watch only

X Pulse watch leads and social-source evidence

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

watch only

Wheat/corn feed substitution and quality spread

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

bounded context

CFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

score input

Canada Wheat

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

country score

US Wheat

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

country score

Corn

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

substitute

Black Sea/EU/Australia

Wheat Bull/Bear pressure

competitor origin

Rule firing now

Local bull signal capped by global origins

When: Canada/US wheat data is supportive but Black Sea, EU, or Australia origin context is cheap or abundant.

Market response: The thesis can stay locally constructive while broad futures conviction is capped by competing export origins.

Confidence: Keep competitor-origin pressure watch-only unless an admitted global-origin source proves the pressure.

Source boundary

Tender-level Black Sea/EU/Australia collection is parked.

Parked Wheat gaps

class-specific Wheat mapping, global origin collector, protein/falling-number feed, local basis.

Relationship links

Price contextsubstitute

Corn

Feed wheat competes with corn when spreads narrow.

Watch-onlycompetitor origin

Black Sea/EU/Australia

Global origins can cap wheat even when local data is supportive.

Canada Major Grains

CGC movement, Grain Monitor logistics, producer cars, prices, COT, and source freshness.

7 packets

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Amber Durum

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

-1

Lean bear

Bull Case

Export pull visible

high

Current-week exports are 72.2 kt against 97.1 kt of producer deliveries.

+74.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Bear Case

Domestic processing thin

medium

Process deliveries are 0 kt in the packet, so domestic demand is not offsetting weak export pull in this read.

0.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Canadian seeding progress cushions supply

low

Provincial crop-progress rows show Amber Durum seeding +87.7% complete on average as of 2026-06-08 (SK 97.0%, AB 78.4%). This is a crop-progress proxy, not independent weather evidence.

+87.7% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports

What feeds this read

4 official inputs · 0 price context · 1 watch leads

CGC export movement and commercial stocks· official inputPrairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy· official inputPrairie durum acres, yield, harvest weather, and quality risk· official inputSaskatchewan spring-cereal development as durum timing context· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices: emptyWeather context: emptyCGC Producer Cars: usable but stale-riskFarm delivery plan: usable but stale-riskFarm crop plan: usable but stale-riskCGC weekly grain stats: strong+2 more

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Barley

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

-12

Lean bear

Bull Case

No strong bullish drivers identified this week.

Bear Case

Canadian seeding progress cushions supply

medium

Provincial crop-progress rows show Barley seeding +83.0% complete on average as of 2026-06-08 (SK 91.0%, AB 74.9%). This is a crop-progress proxy, not independent weather evidence.

+83.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports

What feeds this read

4 official inputs · 1 price context · 1 watch leads

Feed, malt, export, and domestic/process movement· official inputPrairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy· official inputSaskatchewan spring-cereal development as barley timing context· official inputCanadian/US barley acres, condition, harvest, and malt quality risk· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices: emptyWeather context: emptyCGC Producer Cars: usable but stale-riskFarm delivery plan: usable but stale-riskFarm crop plan: usable but stale-riskPrairie crop-progress reports: strong+4 more

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Prairie crop-progress reports (canada_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-09	weekly during growing season	supply / crop progress
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Canola

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

+11

Lean bull

Bull Case

Domestic processing support

high

Process deliveries are 195.7 kt in the packet, keeping domestic demand visible beside exports.

+36.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Managed money support

medium

Managed money is net long in the primary positioning row for Canola.

62,219 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

Canadian seeding progress cushions supply

medium

Provincial crop-progress rows show Canola seeding +77.0% complete on average as of 2026-06-08 (SK 93.0%, AB 60.9%). This is a crop-progress proxy, not independent weather evidence.

+77.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports

Provisional futures pressure

low

The latest packet price sample is CAD 726.1/$/tonne on 2026-06-13. Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat this as provisional price momentum only.

-1.6% latest-only / Grain price feed

What feeds this read

5 official inputs · 2 price context · 1 watch leads

Canadian supply, seeded area, yield, and crop condition· official inputCrush, process deliveries, terminal exports, and direct export flows· official inputPort, rail, and producer-car execution· official inputPrairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Prairie crop-progress reports (canada_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-09	weekly during growing season	supply / crop progress
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
Raw WASDE/PSD world balance (usda_wasde_raw)	2025 / 2026-06	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Corn

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

+24

Bull tilt

Bull Case

Export pull visible

high

Current-week exports are 72.8 kt against 33.9 kt of producer deliveries.

+214.7% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Domestic processing support

high

Process deliveries are 12.3 kt in the packet, keeping domestic demand visible beside exports.

+36.3% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Bear Case

Positioning pressure

medium

The primary positioning row is not adding support for Corn.

-5,325 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

What feeds this read

3 official inputs · 0 price context · 1 watch leads

CBOT corn, CAD/USD, and CFTC positioning· official inputExport sales, WASDE feed/residual, and ethanol use· official inputUS planting, condition, harvest, WASDE production, and stocks· official inputBrazil and Argentina crop/export competition· watch lead

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Prairie crop-progress reports (canada_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-09	weekly during growing season	supply / crop progress
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Oats

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

+12

Lean bull

Bull Case

Export pull visible

high

Current-week exports are 18.9 kt against 26.5 kt of producer deliveries.

+71.3% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Domestic processing support

high

Process deliveries are 8.4 kt in the packet, keeping domestic demand visible beside exports.

+31.7% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Bear Case

Futures pressure

medium

The latest packet price sample is USD 3.08/$/bu on 2026-06-12.

-2.3% / Grain price feed

Positioning pressure

medium

The primary positioning row is not adding support for Oats.

595 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

What feeds this read

5 official inputs · 0 price context · 1 watch leads

Canadian/US acreage, condition, yield, stocks, and milling quality· official inputMilling demand, export sales, and domestic use· official inputPrairie cropland and surface-soil moisture proxy· official inputSaskatchewan spring-cereal development as oats timing context· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Prairie crop-progress reports (canada_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-09	weekly during growing season	supply / crop progress
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Soybeans

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

-24

Bear tilt

Bull Case

Tight carryout context

medium

Carryout is 500 kt against 7,754 kt of total supply in the supply-disposition row.

+6.4% of total supply / Canada supply-disposition table

Bear Case

Domestic processing thin

medium

Process deliveries are 0 kt in the packet, so domestic demand is not offsetting weak export pull in this read.

0.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Canadian seeding progress cushions supply

medium

Provincial crop-progress rows show Soybeans seeding +76.0% complete on average as of 2026-06-08 (SK 76.0%). This is a crop-progress proxy, not independent weather evidence.

+76.0% seeded avg / Prairie crop-progress reports

Positioning pressure

medium

The primary positioning row is not adding support for Soybeans.

90,756 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

What feeds this read

2 official inputs · 1 price context · 1 watch leads

US planting, condition, harvest, WASDE production, and stocks· official inputExport sales, China demand, crush, soybean oil, and meal· official inputSoybean oil and meal impact on canola· price contextBrazil/Argentina supply and China demand-policy pressure· watch lead

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
Prairie crop-progress reports (canada_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-09	weekly during growing season	supply / crop progress
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

Canada68% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Wheat

Crop year 2025-2026 / week 44

-13

Lean bear

Bull Case

Export pull visible

high

Current-week exports are 902.8 kt against 479.1 kt of producer deliveries.

+188.4% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Bear Case

Domestic processing thin

medium

Process deliveries are 14.5 kt in the packet, so domestic demand is not offsetting weak export pull in this read.

+3.0% of weekly deliveries / CGC weekly grain stats

Provisional futures pressure

low

The latest packet price sample is USD 7.11/$/bu on 2026-06-13. Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat this as provisional price momentum only.

-0.6% latest-only / Grain price feed

Positioning pressure

medium

The primary positioning row is not adding support for Wheat.

9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

What feeds this read

7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads

Canada and US crop condition, acreage, WASDE supply, and stocks· official inputCFTC wheat positioning and fund crowding· official inputCGC exports, USDA export sales, and global tender pressure· official inputCanada Wheat supply-disposition baseline· official input

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

Posted cash prices (posted_prices) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

Weather context (weather_cache) is empty: Build or seed this source before thesis use.

CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

+2 more warnings hidden

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
Posted cash prices (posted_prices)	none	operator-entered	price
Weather context (weather_cache)	none	cached forecast	weather
CGC Producer Cars (producer_car_allocations)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly	logistics
Farm delivery plan (crop_plan_deliveries)	2025-2026 / Barley / 2026-03-15	user-entered	farmer behavior
Farm crop plan (crop_plans)	2025-2026 / Wheat	user-entered	farmer behavior
CGC weekly grain stats (cgc_observations)	2025-2026 wk 44	weekly Thu PM	supply / demand / logistics
Canada Grain Monitor (grain_monitor_snapshots)	2025-2026 wk 43	weekly Wed, naturally lagged	logistics
Canada supply-disposition table (supply_disposition)	2025-2026 / AAFC_2026-02-18	periodic AAFC / StatsCan refresh	supply / demand
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context

Open detail page

US Markets

USDA crop progress, export sales, WASDE, prices, COT, and source freshness.

5 packets

US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Barley

Market year 2025

Lean bull

Bull Case

US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)

medium

US total good/excellent is 47.0%, +2.0% versus last year. This is crop-progress-only evidence: a crop-progress proxy, not direct weather evidence.

47.0% good/excellent crop-progress proxy / USDA Crop Progress

Quarterly stocks tighter than expected

low

USDA quarterly stocks show 2,023 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and -9.7% versus year ago.

-9.7% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Bear Case

WASDE balance loosening

medium

Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.

40.2% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

What feeds this read

4 official inputs · 1 price context · 1 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

USDA Export Sales: usable but stale-riskUSDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: usable but stale-riskUSDA WASDE: strongUSDA acreage estimates: strongUSDA Crop Progress: strong

USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-06-04	weekly Thu AM	demand
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-14	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather

Open detail page

US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Corn

Market year 2025

-12

Lean bear

Bull Case

Export sales demand

low

Latest weekly net sales are 1,000,374 mt with export pace at 98.0%.

1,000,374 mt / USDA Export Sales

WASDE export projection raised

medium

USDA lifted projected exports from 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-01, adding 635 kt of demand against the balance sheet.

635 kt exports / USDA WASDE

Bear Case

WASDE domestic use cut

medium

USDA cut domestic use from 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-01, removing 635 kt of non-export demand.

-635 kt domestic use / USDA WASDE

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

low

USDA quarterly stocks show 229,231 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and +10.8% versus year ago.

+10.8% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Managed money net short

medium

Primary CFTC positioning is net short in the latest packet row.

-5,325 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

What feeds this read

3 official inputs · 0 price context · 1 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

USDA Export Sales: usable but stale-riskUSDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: usable but stale-riskCFTC Commitments of Traders: strongGrain price feed: strongUSDA WASDE: strongUSDA acreage estimates: strong+1 more

USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-06-04	weekly Thu AM	demand
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-14	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather

Open detail page

US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Oats

Market year 2025

Balanced

Bull Case

Managed money net long

medium

Primary CFTC positioning is net long in the latest packet row.

595 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

Futures pressure

medium

The latest packet price sample is USD 3.08/$/bu.

-2.3% / Grain price feed

What feeds this read

5 official inputs · 0 price context · 1 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-06-04	weekly Thu AM	demand
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-14	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather

Open detail page

US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Soybeans

Market year 2025

+24

Bull tilt

Bull Case

Export sales demand

low

Latest weekly net sales are 211,292 mt with export pace at 97.7%.

211,292 mt / USDA Export Sales

WASDE balance tightening

medium

Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.

8.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

WASDE crush demand raised

medium

USDA lifted crush from 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-01, adding 544 kt of non-export demand.

544 kt crush / USDA WASDE

Managed money net long

medium

Primary CFTC positioning is net long in the latest packet row.

90,756 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

WASDE export projection cut

medium

USDA cut projected exports from 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-01, removing 545 kt of demand from the balance sheet.

-545 kt exports / USDA WASDE

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

low

USDA quarterly stocks show 57,283 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and +10.1% versus year ago.

+10.1% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

What feeds this read

2 official inputs · 1 price context · 1 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-06-04	weekly Thu AM	demand
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-14	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather

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US54% confidenceScore source: Weekly packet

Wheat

Market year 2025

Lean bull

Bull Case

US crop stress supports price (crop-progress proxy)

medium

US total good/excellent is 27.0%, -25.0% versus last year. This is crop-progress-only evidence: a crop-progress proxy, not direct weather evidence.

27.0% good/excellent crop-progress proxy / USDA Crop Progress

Export sales demand

low

Latest weekly net sales are 95,094 mt with export pace at 95.7%.

95,094 mt / USDA Export Sales

Managed money net long

medium

Primary CFTC positioning is net long in the latest packet row.

9,956 net contracts / CFTC Commitments of Traders

Bear Case

WASDE balance loosening

medium

Ending stocks are available in the latest mapped WASDE row.

46.0% stocks/use / USDA WASDE

Quarterly stocks heavier than expected

low

USDA quarterly stocks show 35,386 kt on hand as of 2026-03-01, with a not available surprise versus WASDE context and +5.2% versus year ago.

+5.2% / USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks

Provisional futures pressure

low

The latest packet price sample is USD 7.11/$/bu. Barchart latest-only scrape; volume/open interest unavailable, so treat this as provisional price momentum only.

-0.6% latest-only / Grain price feed

What feeds this read

7 official inputs · 1 price context · 2 watch leads

Only official sources and admitted price context can move this score. Watch leads point at what to check next; they never move the number on their own.

Source freshness

Packet stamped Jun 16, 11:58 a.m. MDT

USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks) is usable but stale-risk: Refresh or explicitly accept stale-risk before thesis generation.

Source provenance

Source	Latest period	Cadence	Use
USDA Export Sales (usda_export_sales)	2025-2026 / 2026-06-04	weekly Thu AM	demand
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (usda_quarterly_stocks)	Q1 / 2026-03-01	quarterly Jan/Mar/Jun/Sep	measured stocks / supply surprise
CFTC Commitments of Traders (cftc_cot_positions)	2025-2026 wk 45 / 2026-06-09	weekly Fri PM	positioning
Grain price feed (grain_prices)	2026-06-13 / Canola / RSK26	daily market days	price
USDA WASDE (usda_wasde_mapped)	2025 / 2025 / 2026-06-01	monthly WASDE / PSD	supply / demand / international context
USDA acreage estimates (crop_acreage_estimates)	2026 / 2026-03-31	annual NASS acreage Jun/Jan revisions	planted acreage / supply base
USDA Crop Progress (usda_crop_progress)	2026 / 2026-06-14	weekly Mon during growing season	supply / weather

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