Wheat-first · data
Global wheat crop-stress
Satellite vegetation vigor (NDVI) and root-zone soil moisture over the world’s big winter- and spring-wheat belts, compared to the last five years. Redder belts are more stressed than normal — which usually means a tighter crop and firmer prices. Greener belts look healthy. Watch-only for now: this view doesn’t move any market score yet.
This week, the US winter-wheat belt looks near normal; Russia's winter-wheat belt looks healthy — which tends to weigh on prices; Russia's spring-wheat belt looks near normal.
Market intelligence from public satellite data (Google Earth Engine — MODIS & NASA SMAP). Not an instruction to price, hedge, or market grain.
Crop stress
Hover a belt for its NDVI + soil-moisture reading. Redder = more stressed (tends to support prices).
How to read this
- Red = stressed. The crop is doing worse than its 5-year normal for this week (low vegetation vigor and/or dry soil). A stressed major exporter usually means a tighter world crop — a firmer-price signal.
- Green = healthy. Better than normal — a comfortable crop that tends to weigh on prices.
- What you’re seeing. US Hard-Red-Winter belt by state, plus Russia’s winter and spring belts — together most of the world’s exportable wheat. More belts (Canada, EU, Australia) get added as they’re validated.
- Watch-only. We’re still checking this satellite signal against ground-truth crop reports across a full season before it’s allowed to move the Bull/Bear read.